The 62nd Munich Security Conference opened today at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, bringing together heads of state, defence ministers, and senior diplomats from around the world at what organisers have described as a "fundamental inflection point" for global security. The three-day event, running from February 13 to 15, arrives against a backdrop of deepening transatlantic mistrust, ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine, and growing questions about whether the United States can still be considered a reliable security partner for Europe.
Merz Sets the Tone
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz opened the conference with a stark address. Speaking to a packed main hall, he declared that the freedoms Europeans have long taken for granted are now actively under threat. His remarks follow the release of the Munich Security Report 2026, provocatively subtitled "Under Destruction," which details how the rules-based international order is being dismantled by both state actors and a retreat of traditional alliances.
"Those who advocate the preservation of international norms and institutions should be no less determined than those who seek to undermine them."
— Munich Security Report 2026
The Shadow of NATO 3.0
A key talking point at this year's conference is the Pentagon's proposal for "NATO 3.0" — a restructured alliance that would shift significantly more burden onto European members. US Deputy Secretary of Defence Elbridge Colby introduced the concept in pre-conference discussions, suggesting that Europe must take primary responsibility for its own territorial defence while the United States pivots resources toward the Indo-Pacific.
European reactions have been mixed. Several officials reportedly greeted the proposal with cautious relief, seeing it as preferable to previous threats from Washington to withdraw from the alliance entirely. However, enthusiasm is tempered by the fiscal realities facing most EU member states, many of which are already grappling with high debt levels and competing demands on public spending.
A Transatlantic Rift Laid Bare
The conference comes just a year after US Vice President J.D. Vance used the 2025 MSC to criticise European governments for censorship and what he characterised as an immigration policy that left the continent "useless" to Washington. That speech was widely seen as a watershed moment, signalling that the Trump administration viewed the EU more as a competitor than an ally.
This year, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads the American delegation, and early signals suggest a slightly softer approach. EU officials have described pre-conference discussions as more "constructive" than last year's combative tone, though deep disagreements over defence spending targets, trade policy, and digital regulation remain unresolved.
European Coalitions Take Shape
Recognising the limits of consensus-based decision-making across 27 member states, smaller "coalitions of the willing" have been forming to drive defence policy forward. The Weimar Plus grouping — France, Germany, Poland, and the UK — has emerged as a key driver of defence-industrial consolidation. Meanwhile, France's Macron and Germany's Merz arrived at yesterday's EU summit at Belgium's Alden Biesen castle walking side by side over the drawbridge, projecting unity even as they differ on strategy.
President Zelenskyy of Ukraine is expected to address the conference, pressing for continued military support even as negotiations around a potential ceasefire remain elusive. A "coalition of the willing" of more than 30 European and partner nations has already taken responsibility for coordinating aid and preparing post-conflict security guarantees — a task that once fell squarely to Washington.
What to Watch
Over the next two days, all eyes will be on Rubio's main address, the reaction from European capitals, and whether concrete commitments emerge on defence spending increases. The conference will also host sessions on the security implications of artificial intelligence, the Middle East, and the economic weaponisation of trade — themes that underscore how the definition of "security" has expanded well beyond the military domain.
For Europe, the Munich Security Conference 2026 may be remembered as the moment the continent stopped debating whether it needed strategic autonomy and started building it.